Crew (00:00):
[inaudible 00:00:15]
Celeste Saulo (00:00):
Oh, she has the power-
Nandita Surendran (04:37):
Good morning, everyone. I'm very pleased to welcome you to this press briefing, where the World Meteorological Organization will present findings from our latest El Nino Update, which we issued this morning, along with the Global Seasonal Climate Update for the next quarter. You should have received these updates and the press release in UN languages.
(04:58)
My name is Nandita Surendran, and I'm the chief of communications at WMO. I'll be your moderator today.
(05:05)
WMO has been issuing the El Nino-La Nina Updates for nearly 30 years now. This is an authoritative seasonal forecast that brings together the world's leading experts and scientists.
(05:19)
In June, you will remember we called for the world to prepare for an El Nino. Today, we will provide the latest information on its forecast evolution and likely impacts. I'm delighted to welcome our two speakers today, who will take us through where we are and what we can expect to see.
(05:38)
Celeste Saulo is the Secretary General of WMO, and Wilfran Moufouma-Okia is the chief of the climate prediction, section also at WMO. After our speakers finish, we will, of course, take your questions.
(05:52)
So Celeste, over to you.
Celeste Saulo (05:55):
Thank you very much, Nandita, and dear members of the media. I'm pleased to be with you today for the release of the new World Meteorological Organization El Nino Update, and thank you very much for your interest.
(06:09)
WMO El Nino-La Nino Updates are the world's most authoritative source of information for governments and decision-makers. They are based on the consensus models from WMO Global Producing Centers, climate prediction centers, and experts from national meteorological and hydrological services around the world.
(06:32)
These forecasts show an exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100% that El Nino will persist through to February 2027, nearly 100%. This is the first time that we expressed such a degree of certainty.
(06:54)
El Nino is firmly established in the Tropical Pacific. Sea surface temperatures in the regions are already well above average and are continuing to rise. Subsurface ocean average, sorry, subsurface ocean temperatures are also exceptionally high and, in some areas, more than 8 degrees Celsius above normal during July and early August. This means that there is a huge pool of very warm ocean waters that will fuel the intensity of El Nino.
(07:31)
The WMO Update shows that El Nino has strengthened and will continue as a very strong event, even exceptionally strong. If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began. So, literally, off the charts we have used for the past four decades.
(07:59)
El Nino will peak towards the ends of 2026, but it impacts will be felt long after that, including on global temperatures. The powerful 2023-2024 El Nino contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record. We should not be surprised if this record is broken. WMO will be closely monitoring global temperatures in the months ahead. Why does this matter? El Nino means the boy child because it was first noticed by Peruvian fishermen around Christmastime. It sounds small and innocent, but this El Nino will deliver a major blow to communities, economies, and supply chains across the globe.
(08:51)
So many sectors will be affected, agriculture, trade, fisheries, health, energy, transport, water resources, disaster management, to name but a few. We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and extreme weather. We expect these impacts to multiply and cascade as El Nino intensifies.
(09:18)
This exceptional El Nino demands exceptional preparation and response. Seasonal forecasts such as the WMO El Nino Updates provide a vital window of opportunity. We have no time to lose.
(09:34)
What are we doing? WMO has launched an unprecedented mobilization with national meteorological and hydrological services who are on the front line of delivering the forecast and services to save lives and livelihoods. We are also working closely with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system.
(09:57)
WMO is part of the core UN team with the UN Office of Disaster Risk Reduction and the Food and Agriculture Organization working with UN country teams in managing risk associated with the 2026-2027 El Nino episode, while identifying opportunities for building resilience. The WMO coordination mechanism is providing tailored expertise to the humanitarian sector.
(10:26)
Coordination and commitment are essential. In Africa, the African Union has called for a collective response. Preparedness for El Nino will be one of the focuses of the Africa Early Warnings Forum taking place this week in Addis Ababa.
(10:43)
For example, the Tanzania Meteorological Agency has a nationwide awareness campaign reaching agriculture and food security sector, railroads and roads, disaster managers, and the general public.
(10:57)
Across Latin America and the Caribbean, UN partners are rolling out preparedness plans in countries traditionally hard-hit by El Nino. Anticipatory action plans include cash assistance, drought and flood-resistant seeds, livestock protection and flood protection measures.
(11:17)
Panama has declared a national state of emergency to mobilize spending on preventive and response measures. In parallel, the Panama Canal Authority has implemented water-saving operations as part of wider measures to strengthen water sustainability.
(11:35)
Peru has declared a stage of emergency across 40% of the country for flooding and landslides.
(11:43)
In Asia, national meteorological and hydrological services in some countries are advising decision-makers about the risk of below-normal rains.
(11:53)
India convened a high-level interministerial review of El Nino preparedness involving agriculture, health, water, power, and economic agencies.
(12:05)
Singapore is strengthening protection against extreme heat through both worker safety rules and a national heatwave response plan.
(12:15)
Nations in the Pacific are geared up for an above-average tropical cyclone season.
(12:22)
WMO will be showcasing more examples of proactive planning in the coming weeks.
(12:28)
I've said this before, and I'll tell this again. El Nino does not have to be a recipe for disaster. We have the forecast, the foresight to save lives and protect livelihoods.
(12:44)
Today, we are issuing a call to action. The science is clear. We have the knowledge and tools to prevent El Nino-related hazards becoming a crisis. Let us join together and ensure that we leave nobody behind. Thank you.
Celeste Saulo (13:00):
... be behind. Thank you.
Nandita Surendran (13:04):
Thank you, Celeste. Wilfran, over to you.
Wilfran Moufouma Okia (13:09):
Thank you very much. Good morning, everyone. Thank you very much, Madam Secretary General and Nandita. I would like to build on the statement made by the secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization and try to provide some insight on the report we issued today.
(13:28)
The message of the report is clear. So El Nino is firmly established. It has transferred rapidly over the past month, and there is an exceptionally high confidence for this event to persist through the end of the year and into early 2027.
(13:51)
There is also another equally important message from this report is that the high confidence in the El Nino forecast doesn't mean certainty on its impact. The impact depends on many other process and element I will distinguish in a few minutes, but let me start with what have we observed since the onset of the event, which occur around April.
(14:20)
So El Nino has strengthened rapidly. If we take one of the key indicator we use to monitor the evolution of El Nino, which is the sea surface temperature anomaly in the central and the eastern part of the tropical Pacific, in a region we call the Nino 3.4 region, this region has seen a marked increase of sea surface temperature anomaly, and we are talking about value ranging from plus 1.5 degree Celsius to 2 degree Celsius in May, July. Those value have increased further in August, reaching up to 2 plus, 2.6 degree.
(15:13)
But what is striking is that the warming is not confined to the sea surface. There is a large reservoir of heat beneath the surface, and in some places we measure value around plus 8 degrees Celsius. So this is striking.
(15:37)
In short, what we can say is that the sea surface warming, the subsurface ocean heat content, and the atmospheric circulation are singing the same song. This give us confidence to say that El Nino is firmly established and has strengthened rapidly.
(15:57)
What comes next? So our forecast indicate a near 100% probability for this event to persist in September, November and remain active up to February 2027. This is an exceptionally strong forecast signal we've never seen before.
(16:19)
But let me be clear here. The 100% probability simply mean that we have an exceptionally high confidence for this event to persist. It doesn't mean that we have a 100% probability for a flood, a drought, or even a heat wave to occur in a given country.
(16:45)
If you were to put in term of the magnitude of the event, all our model are indicating the same travel. So there is a broad agreement to say that the El Nino event will be classified as a very strong event, meaning it will have a magnitude of above plus 2 degrees Celsius and it will peak, as you heard from the secretary general, later in the end of the year.
(17:16)
However, what is less certain is the magnitude of the peak and the timing. To give you an idea, our forecast indicate on the average a magnitude of plus 3.6. Let's be clear again here. The strength of the El Nino peak doesn't imply anything on the severity of the impact, which depend on where you are, the time of the year, the way the El Nino phenomenon will play out with other climate driver, and plus other non-climatic processes like vulnerability or exposure.
(17:57)
Now, the next thing we can say before I conclude is that in compliment to the update on El Nino WMO to kind of provide a full picture of the climatic driver of the change, we compliment the El Nino update with the global seasonal climate update, which is essentially a seasonal climate outlook which try to integrate all the possible climate driver worldwide.
(18:28)
If we look at the message coming for this outlook, if I pick randomly the rainfall, what we can see clearly is that for the period September to November, there is a clear signature of El Nino in the tropical Pacific with regional contrast. The probability favor, I will say, wetter than normal condition over the greater whole of Africa, over some part of South America, and at the same time, the probability also favor drier than normal condition over India subcontinent, Southeast Asia and the maritime continent, Australia, northern part of South America, Central America, and the Caribbean. In term of temperature, what we can also say is that the probabilities favor above than average temperature in a large proportion of land area.
(19:34)
But in concluding, what I would like to stress here is that the value of forecast lie is the lead time to anticipate or to take action. We can certainly not prevent El Nino from happening, but with better observation, better forecast, better early warning system, and even better climate services, we can keep our government with the intelligence they need to mitigate the risk of El Nino.
(20:04)
Furthermore, our national met services, the Regional Climate Outlook Forum, the Regional Climate Center, are the authoritative place where we need to turn to to try to translate the global information we provided today into regional and national guidance. Thank you very much.
Nandita Surendran (20:27):
Thank you, Wilfran. We are now open for questions. Bianca, please.
Bianca Rothier (20:33):
Okay. Thank you very much. Here, Bianca Rothier from Global TV Brazil. Secretary General, one of the maps showed the contrast in Brazil, like the possibility of severe rain in the north and northeast and also the drought in the north, northeast and extreme rainfall in the south. Do you believe that emerging countries like Brazil are prepared or have we already crossed the line where even scientific warnings and early alerts won't be enough to prevent humanitarian disasters and economic disasters? More specific about .. If you can talk a little bit more specific on Brazil and beyond these humanitarian strategies, what scale of economic impact does the WMO fear for the region, for Brazil? Thanks a lot.
Celeste Saulo (21:41):
Well, thank you for your question. And, yes, indeed Brazil is one of the specific country, and the signals are clear towards drought conditions in the northeast and weather conditions in the southeast. Certainly Brazil is a very well-prepared country. They have a strong met service and also strong academic community.
(22:06)
I mention both because it's about monitoring, it's about forecasting, but also about understanding the impacts. As you said, Brazil may be exposed in the northern part to issues of water, hydropower, and Brazil depends a lot on hydropower. In the south, these flooding possibilities can of course affect food.
(22:39)
But having this information in advance, and I know that Brazil uses it carefully, helps the country to prepare much better. I think that Brazil is putting in place several measures as other countries in the region.
(22:56)
Usually when we speak from the UN perspective, we tend to concentrate more in the more vulnerable countries in the world, least developed world, small island, developing states. That does not mean that we don't care about the developing world. But certainly the elements are in place for Brazil to take early action, and I'm sure that is being the case as it is in many other countries in South America.
Bianca Rothier (23:31):
Yeah. If you could just explain for ordinary people what impacts we could feel there, for example, with the crops, with the energy, or ... Yeah, if you can just give some examples of impacts.
Celeste Saulo (23:48):
Well, as my colleague Wilfran already expressed, we cannot be certain about what impact when and where exactly. But when you see a picture like the one we are sharing with below normal precipitation in Northeast Brazil, you expect, of course, impacts in agriculture.
(24:12)
How do you prepare? Well, you make different decisions in terms of what seeds you will plant. You will plant seeds that are capable of supporting less rain. These are the type of decisions you're taking ahead. When you have hydropower and depend on hydropower, you will use your reservoirs to manage your availability of energy. So this is the type of impacts and decision making associated with having this information in advance.
Nandita Surendran (24:49):
Thank you. Over to you.
Robin Millard (24:53):
Thank you. Robin Millard from AFP. You say this could be the strongest El Nino since the records began. What is it that you are seeing in the data that gives you the certainty to be able to make that prediction? Secondly, if we know that El Nino is going to persist into February 2027, can you speak a bit more about what will happen after February 2027? What are the impacts of El Nino for the rest of the year? Thank you.
Celeste Saulo (25:22):
Maybe [inaudible 00:25:23].
Wilfran Moufouma Okia (25:28):
Thank you very much for your question. If I take the first part, which is what give us the confidence that this very strong El Nino will stand in the high end of the historical record, there is a slide. Basically if we look through the observation from what we had in term of the magnitude of strong and very strong El Nino event, and if we overlay the forecast, we can only speak about forecast now, we see that the forecast stand out ...
Wilfran Moufouma Okia (26:00):
... now. We see that the forecast stand out in that picture, but of course it will depend on the peak. I think when we will reach the peak, we'll measure the value and we can confirm or disregard the forecast. That's the first part. The second question you asked was regarding?
Robin Millard (26:24):
It was regarding what happens after February 2027, what are the impacts for the rest of the ...
Wilfran Moufouma Okia (26:28):
Yes. Yes. Thank you and sorry for missing this point.
(26:29)
Yes. So essentially what the report we provided today is the outcome of an exercise of seasonal forecasting. By seasonal, meaning we forecast for the next season, up to four months. So what will happen from every month we will update our forecast to extend the lead. I suspect when we reach February, we will have forecast for the upcoming season and they will provide some information of where we are moving to. Thank you.
Robin Millard (27:01):
But we can expect the knock-on effects of El Nino to have an impact on the temperature in 2027, for example?
Celeste Saulo (27:09):
Yes. If I can compliment that, yes, because that is a very coherent sign and it's something that we also experience in 2024, as I mentioned at the beginning. So with a strong El Nino, we know that we will have temperatures above normal almost everywhere. So as a result, we expect that the world mean temperature will be higher than in previous years. That is on what we expect globally on average.
(27:47)
But to also to speak about the impacts beyond February 2027, we have a nicer report that we have prepared together with other UN agencies showcasing, for example, this is just an example, but if in South Africa you expect less rain than normal, that will immediately affect the agricultural sector. But then a couple of months later, you will also be affecting the hydropower and the energy generation and the water availability. And as a result, you may also feel the compromise into your next seeding season.
(28:31)
And that is how we expect the El Nino impacts to stay beyond even 2027 to 2028. And that will depend on how each country can adapt their decision making not to be so exposed to this water shortage in the case of South Africa. And I think that these are the type of examples we should follow closely.
Nandita Surendran (28:59):
Thank you. Okay. One final question from the room and then we have a couple of questions from online.
Speaker 1 (29:11):
Sorry. Okay. Mr. Moufouma, you said that 100% of a strong Nino doesn't mean 100% of disasters or 100% of droughts or catastrophic rainfalls, but normal people could make a correlation between a very strong El Nino and what they have lived in past El Ninos. I mean, floods and all type of disasters. So how could you explain better that to the people and the fact that the people has not to be flooded by fear of what is coming?
(29:58)
And secondly, I would also like to ask on the heat wave that we have lived in Europe this year, is this heat wave had any correlation with El Nino? And if the temperatures will be for sure globally will increase next year, could we expect another heat wave in Europe? Thank you.
Wilfran Moufouma Okia (30:25):
Thank you very much for your question. I'll start with your first question regarding the distinction between El Nino and the impact. To put it simply, El Nino changes the odds, the probability of climate condition. It is not a forecast of storm or a forecast of heat wave. So it changes, that's the global picture.
(30:55)
Now I think it's interesting to try to explain to the general public that for us to have a detailed picture of impact of El Nino, we need to collaborate broadly. We bring the national met services, we bring the sector concern to try to refine the information. So we are providing the global guidance, but the detail will come from the ground, from the country. That's part of the question.
(31:24)
And you also mentioned the question regarding the heat wave. Of course, the heat wave in Europe is not related to El Nino. We have a heat dome located somewhere in Europe. But we can just draw a parallel, what we are expecting is that over the coming month, temperature to raise above the average of most everywhere. We can imagine if an heat wave occur again, we will be in a very difficult situation, but the link is not firmly established.
Nandita Surendran (32:02):
Okay, thank you. And now turning to online, we have a question from dpa and then France Radio.
Luciana (32:11):
Thank you very much. It's Luciana here with the German Press Agency. Can you hear me? Hello? Can you hear me?
Nandita Surendran (32:22):
Yes, we can.
Luciana (32:24):
Okay. Sorry about that. My first question goes back to what Madam Saulo said about the strongest we saw in four decades. Can you just clarify what happened four decades ago? Is that when WMO started measuring El Nino effects or because El Ninos have of course occurred before four decades ago? What exactly is the timeframe here?
(32:54)
And I have another question for Mr. Moufouma. I think you mentioned in your initial remarks a magnitude two plus 3.6. I was a bit confused and I wasn't sure what that was referring to. So if you could clarify those two. Thank you very much.
Celeste Saulo (33:20):
Sorry, I will go first. And in terms of the timeframe you asked for when I spoke about decades or four decades or a little bit more, it's about the timeframe we mentioned of monitoring in similar way using satellite information with the same type of indexes. Of course, El Nino started many, many decades ago and we can trace El Nino events even from 19th century. But if we are to compare similar methodologies, that's why I mentioned the last four plus decades in this reference time.
Wilfran Moufouma Okia (34:10):
Thank you very much for your question regarding the magnitude of El Nino. So again, I will clarify here. So all our tool or our forecasting system indicates that this event will be a very strong event. By our classification, it means the magnitude will be above plus two degrees centigrade. Now our model has a spread. They go from the low end to the high end. If we pick an average, we can think around three plus 3.6, but some other model will provide upper value, some lower. I hope that clarifies the situation. Thank you.
Luciana (34:47):
You mean in water? [inaudible 00:34:51]-
Wilfran Moufouma Okia (34:50):
No. Yeah. So basically the way we measure El Nino, at least from the ocean side, is to look at the sea surface temperature anomaly in the particular box in the Pacific. And our tool are trying to reproduce that matrix and they've come with different answer. Some will put two, some will put higher, but on the average we are close to plus 3.6. But that's the model output. Again, we need confirmation when we get to that peak and when we can have observation. Thank you.
Nandita Surendran (35:26):
Okay. Thank you very much. We've run out of time for today. Please do ... Sorry, we can ... All right, sorry. I can see a question from Reuters. Emma, would you like to go ahead?
Emma (35:37):
Yeah, thank you so much. If you could just clarify the climate change link. Obviously El Nino not caused by climate change, but presumably warmer water temperatures are. And just a quick line on the extreme weather impacts you're expecting are typhoons among them. Thank you.
Celeste Saulo (35:59):
Yes. As we say, and you mentioned it very clear, the El Nino is natural climate variability by definition. So there is no necessarily any link between the climate change and El Nino, El Nino frequency or El Nino strength. None at all. Of course, if we expect warmer temperatures on top of a warming world, certainly the amount of heat into the system will be larger. And that is what we are mentioning here. That is in terms of the magnitude and the climate change.
(36:43)
And on your question on extreme events, we are already experiencing extreme events. Some of them are related to El Nino, some are not. But as my colleague Wilfran mentioned, we are not forecasting necessarily a specific extreme event here or there on the timing. The timing for an extreme event is very difficult. It's a very precise and local forecast, and that's why we also emphasize the need to go from global to regional to local forecasts. But of course, if you have atmospheric conditions and an environment that leads to more water availability for more rain, you can expect some severe weather occurring on top of that environment or that condition. And at the same time, if you expect less than a normal rain, that does not necessarily mean a drought. A drought is the extreme expression of below normal precipitation, but it depends on other factors and the previous conditioning, whether below normal precipitation leads to a drought or not. And that is the type of decision that is on the responsibility of national met services locally to, of course, support their governments and their stakeholders.
Nandita Surendran (38:26):
Thank you. Yes. Okay, please go ahead, Bianca.
Bianca Rothier (38:30):
One clarification, because you explained that you have similar conditions to monitor since 40 years. So it wouldn't be correct if we compare before with other El Ninos in the past? This is a clarification. And second one, I saw in the report that there is intense heat, not only in the Pacific Ocean, but also very high temperatures in the Atlantic. So what would that mean for America, for example? Thanks.
Nandita Surendran (39:00):
So America, for example. Thanks.
Celeste Saulo (39:09):
As I mentioned before, yes, you can always have methodologies to compare previous El Niños. When we speak about the stronger El Niño in the memory that we all collectively have, we can speak about 1990, '97, 1998, and we can speak about 2015, 2016. We don't need to go so far long on time history to see the impacts of those strong events into different sectors and countries. So that is just to put the timeframe that's there.
(39:51)
And when you speak about the Atlantic, yes, the combination of the conditions of the Atlantic plus the conditions over the Pacific do alter the expected weather in South America, in particular. And that is well documented, in terms of how the South Atlantic conversion zone, which is a very well-known system in South America, will be even more fueled by warmer Atlantic waters. But this is where, again, the local National Met Service has a role to play. And that's why WMO always points towards that level of information to be gathered at the local level.
Nandita Surendran (40:45):
Okay, thank you. I'm checking if we have any more questions. Don't seem to see anything online. If that's it. All right. Thank you so much for your interest and for joining the press conference today. We've posted a link to the Secretary General's speech, which is online.
(41:03)
A special thanks to our wonderful colleagues at UNTV that help us get this message out so widely. We are available for interviews. You have our contact details. Thank you and have a good day.